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Japan PM Kishida's govt to stay in power, but LDP at risk of losing its own majority: Media forecast

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida owes his rise to the top to elite LDP power brokers.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida owes his rise to the top to elite LDP power brokers.PHOTO: EPA-EFE

TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was in danger of losing its majority in Parliament, according to early projections released by local media on Sunday (Oct 31).

While the LDP is projected to stay in power due to its coalition with another party, Komeito, the result from Sunday's election likely leaves Mr Kishida and the LDP considerably weakened to pursue their policy agenda.

Mr Kishida, 64, who has aimed low and targeted a majority for the coalition of at least 233 seats in the 465-seat Lower House, is likely to claim victory.

Yet this is the first time since 2009 that the LDP will lose its simple majority in the Lower House, a result that comes as a rebuke to the ruling party which has been accused of arrogance - following a series of nepotism and cronyism scandals over the years - and of being out of touch with the public.

Mr Kishida, who declared that he was calling for an election on the very day he took office on Oct 4, owes his rise to the top to elite LDP power brokers.

Sunday's likely outcome, which comes despite Mr Kishida crisscrossing the country on chartered flights to appeal to voters, shows that he has struggled connecting with them.

In the previous Lower House, the LDP by itself had 276 seats while the Komeito had 29, bringing the ruling bloc's total to 305 seats out of 465 seats in the Diet's (Japanese Parliament) more powerful chamber.

Yet a projection by public broadcaster NHK on Sunday shows that the LDP by itself will win only between 212 and 253 seats, which may jeopardise the party's majority.

This will have major implications on policymaking, especially on security policy, where the conservative LDP has diverged from the dovish, pacifist Komeito, and may face trouble passing defence-related Bills.

The left-leaning main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) made inroads, having formed a loose alliance with other smaller opposition parties such as the Japanese Communist Party to field a unity candidate to avoid diluting the anti-LDP vote.

Another party that appears to have fared well is the Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), which is expected to more than triple its presence in the Diet from 11 seats to between 34 and 47 seats.

In one of his last campaign stops on Saturday evening, Mr Kishida received a smattering of polite applause when he addressed a packed crowd in front of the Yotsuya train station in Tokyo.

His voice cracked as he tried to enthuse voters over his economic vision of a "new style of Japanese capitalism" to reduce inequality and redistribute wealth. Yet his rhetoric has only become more vague as he ditched ideas that roiled the stock markets, such as taxing capital gains.

Voter turnout stood at 31.65 per cent as at 6pm on Sunday, two hours before polls closed, or 1.65 percentage points higher than at the same time in the last Lower House election in 2017. Another 19.49 per cent cast their ballots in early voting.

Out of the 465 seats at stake in the Lower House election, 289 seats are for single-seat districts while the remaining 176 seats are for proportional representation.

The result might mean a stay of execution for Mr Kishida.

The LDP will face an Upper House election in July next year, and a dismal showing then could result in him becoming yet another revolving door leader following his predecessor Yoshihide Suga, who lasted only one year in office.

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